First results of predictions for the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico
The oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has attracted considerable worldwide attention. Over the last few days at Deltares a lot of work has gone into setting up a simulation which can be used to predict how the oil will spread out over the course of time in the area. This is a first test in order to see if our predictions agree with observational data (for example, from satellites). If this is the case, then the models could be very useful aids for giving an insight into the outcome of proposed measures (spraying with dispersal agents, burning off, mechanical clearance, oil booms, etc). After all it could last weeks or even months until the leaking oil source is closed off.
The simulation is based on tidal and wind-driven current projections. Large-scale circulations and vertical density effects are not included in it yet. The wind force is taken from NOAA GFS predictions which are three-dimensionally variable. The current models are running operationally and are updated every 12 hours.
The oil simulation is initialised on the basis of a satellite film taken by NASA’s MODIS (Aqua) on 9 May 2010. Figure 1a shows the real situation; the real oil slicks and the thinner haze (the so-called ‘sheen’). Figure 1b shows the Deltares prediction projected onto the same satellite image; here just the main slick has been included (shown in bright green) and not the sheen surrounding the slick. It is interesting to see that ESA’s Envisat observed the same slick on 9 May 2010 (Figure 2). In addition to the slick there is assumed to be a continual discharge of oil at the location of the leaking platform. Quantities are based on estimates. The type of oil is assumed to be a ‘light crude’ which is subject to restricted evaporation (worst case). The phase of dispersed oil is not yet included at this stage.
(No rights can be derived from the information on this webpage(s). The use of this information is at your own risk. See also: Deltares disclaimer
fig 1a, satellite image May 9, courtesy of NASA
fig 1b, satellite image May 9, courtesy of NASA
fig 2, satellite observation May 9, courtesy ESA's Envisat
The first predictions are now known. The contours of the slick are merely representative and do not show its divisions. In Figure 3 the result of the predictions after 1 day on 10 May 2010 can be seen. The prediction is projected onto a satellite picture taken by NASA’s MODIS (Terra) on the same day, 10 May 2010. Despite our first swift approach this prediction for 10 May is in agreement with the satellite observations. If the wind predictions used for 9 May are correct, the first oil is expected to reach the coast on Thursday 13 May (see Figure 4).
fig 3 modelling result May 10, compared to satellite observation, courtesy NASA's MODIS (Terra)
fig 4, modelling result May 13, started on satellite observation of May 9, courtesy NASA's MODIS (Aqua)
more information: info@deltares.nl
