Preparation of water scenarios

A common way to deal with an uncertain future is to prepare a variety of scenarios for possible developments. Deltares prepares such scenarios for water management purposes. These scenarios integrate the hydrological response on climate change, sea level rise, subsidence as well as socio-economic developments.

Hydrological scenarios

Hydrological scenarios describe the consequences of climate change on the surface water, the soil and groundwater. This information is used to assess the future water supply and expected changes in the occurrence of extreme floods and droughts. Typical questions are: what changes can we expect in design floods for flood protection structures or sewer systems, how much water is available for crops, what will be the inflow in the lakes and reservoirs, will there be sufficient recharge to maintain the ground water levels.

Sea level rise scenarios

Sea level rise scenarios are used for designing  coastal protection structures, to assess the salt intrusion in the ground and surface water in delta’s; and to assess changes in currents along the coasts .We combine effects of local subsidence and sea level rise, as both are important in delta’s. We provide quantitative scenarios that integrate sea level rise estimates, storm surges and wave heights. In estuaries and tidal river areas, we quantitatively assess the effects on water levels, salt concentrations, current velocities as well as the ecological consequences.